With the current Coronavirus situation, it can be hard to know what to listen to, what is actually happening, what this all means, and most importantly, how to keep your head throughout. I shall try and write this post with both sensitivity and factual accuracy, but with the numbers ever changing, mine will only be as true as the day they are written and reported.
Let's start with the basics. Covid-19 is a respiratory infection first found in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, the disease has spread throughout the rest of the world, causing what is known as a pandemic. Pandemic literally means the spread (of a disease) around a whole country of the world. Pandemic does not refer to the severity of the disease, nor the number of people infected globally. For example, 10 people in every country could have a disease and that would be a pandemic. It is not a word to be feared. The most common symptoms (shortness of breath, fever and a persistent cough) occur within 2-10 days after exposure, but can take up to 14 days. Small droplets from sneezing, coughing and talking are the main ways the disease spreads, so close contact is not recommended, hence the social distancing measures put in place. On average, Corona has as 3% mortality rate, although this differs depending on the patients age and previous health conditions.
Old people are some of the most vulnerable. This is true for any infectious disease, not just Corona. Because of this vulnerability, they will be at risk of fatality from whatever is going round at the time, whether it be flu, norovirus, or as is the current situation, Covid-19. In Italy, 88.5% of Corona-linked deaths were in people aged 60+ as of the 6th of April. In the Netherlands, the number is 69.2% as of the 3rd of April. By comparison, Age UK reports that 92% - 46,000 - of excess deaths (deaths that are beyond the typical rate per month from standard causes of death e.g. heart attack) relating to flu were from those in the 65+ category in the 2017/8 winter (December to March). What this means is that when looking into the death rates of each country, there needs to be consideration as to whether the population is ageing, such as in the UK, Italy and Spain, and how many of those who died were old enough to be classed as vulnerable. In countries with an ageing population, the death rate is always going to be higher, regardless of the disease currently being spread.
Another thing to remember about the death rate is the way it is reported by the media. The media will report the numbers in a way that creates fear. Why? Because fear sells and keeps viewers interested. The US has had 12,905 deaths and 22,467 recoveries. Italy has had 17,127 deaths and 24,392 recoveries. Spain has had 14,555 deaths and 48,021 recoveries. France has had 10,328 deaths and 19,337 recoveries. Iran has had 4,003 deaths and 29,812 recoveries. These are the top most infected countries (outside of China and Germany - I'll get onto this later), but in almost every other country, the recovery rates are higher than the mortality rates. China's numbers have been excluded over conspiracy of untruthful reporting to the rest of the world. Recoveries mainly refers to those who are going into hospital as a result of infection. In almost every country the recovery rates are higher than the mortality rates. But you won't hear that on the news.
Lots of the frustration about the Covid-19 outbreak comes from the secondary effects. Primary affects are the direct consequences of the virus, such as having a fever. Secondary effects, by contrast, are the 'side effects', such as unemployment. The worry about what will happen in terms of work and finances has become a significant worry for lots of us. A large number of independent businesses have had to close with the possibility of remaining that way, despite financial 'support' from the Government. Support seems to be a subjective term to the Government, as they only began to help businesses after driving sales down and having massive lay offs. For those who have been lucky enough to keep their jobs, 80% of their paycheck up to £2500 should be adequate. For the rest of us, time will only tell as to what we will do.
I couldn't write an essay about Corona without mentioning the impact on students. The UK Government cancelled exams before they sent out letters to vulnerable people to say to stay in isolation. What kind of bullshit is that? The decision to cancel all A-level and GCSE exams comes across as toys being thrown out of the pram. There were no steps taken before cancelling them all. And this is not going to be something that will quickly be forgotten or forgiven by those who are affected the most. They could have kept students at 2 metre intervals and used the unused buildings within towns and schools. They could have kept the exams as timetabled until the end of April and then reviewed them. They could have even tried online exams and opened schools for those students who do not have access to computers and WiFi at home. Yes, you can do the exams in autumn if you feel the grades you have been given are unfair and do not reflect your true performance, but for many, especially those going to university this September, that is too late. It has been a poor show, and one that we will be feeling the effects of for years to come.
Earlier I mentioned that a special mention on Germany was going to come later. So here it is. Germany has the 4th highest infection rate with 107,659 reported cases. However, there number of deaths is 2,017, giving Germany a mortality rate of 1.87%. So what is going on in Germany then? Well, the average age of an infected Corona patient is 49, compared to 62 in Italy and France. Many of those who initially caught the virus were those who had been skiing in Austrian and Italian ski resorts, and were relatively young and healthy. As we have previously seen, age is a huge factor in mortality. Germany has also been testing far more, and so have been able to find positive results in those with minor or no symptoms, thus increasing the amount of known cases, but not the fatalities - on paper. They have been able to test and track on a much easier scale. When a school had found out that a teacher had been to a carnival where someone else had tested positive, they immediately asked him to be tested. The test came back positive, and the school shut immediately and asked for the pupils and teachers to remain at home for 2 weeks. 235 people were tested as a result. The German healthcare system is also a massive credit to their numbers as they are now accepting overflow patients from countries like Italy and France. In January, Germany has 28,000 intensive care beds with ventilators. It is estimated that they now have 40,000. It could also be argued that the rational decision-making at the highest level of Government and the trust from the people is the biggest contributing factor to Germany's low mortality rate. Chancellor Angela Merkel, a trained scientist, has spoken calmly, clearly and regularly throughout the crisis and as stricter social distancing measures have been put in place, and has had majority oppositional party support. Her approval ratings have dramatically increased, and the guidelines have followed.
It is clear that the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are felt throughout generations all around the globe. Personally, I cannot wait till the day I never have to hear someone say "social distancing" again. But until that point, it is important to remember that the situation is not as doom and gloom as it first appears. So switch off the news, go outside, and enjoy the good weather.